Brazil Wind Power: Wind Energy Industry Manifesto Launch

WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY STATEMENT  - URGENCY AND SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 

We present this positioning with a deep sense of responsibility and urgency to address the future of the wind energy industry in Brazil. It is well known that the renewables sector, especially wind energy, is the fundamental pillar of our future and is key to the future climate and the global economy. However, the future requires specific care for this sector to survive. 

1. BRAZIL AT THE GLOBAL FOREFRONT AND THE COMMITMENT TO COP 30

With COP 30 approaching, the world is watching. This is the time to demonstrate, with concrete actions, that Brazil is a consistent global climate leader. This leadership is not a mere rhetoric, but rather a practice built on regulatory predictability and the creation of conditions for the continued expansion of the economy's decarbonization. This means strong investment in renewable energy, an essential element for accelerating the energy transition and achieving global goals. We recognize the joint efforts of the government and institutions that, over the past 15 years, have brought credibility to the country, stimulated investment, and consolidated Brazil as a global leader in clean energy by transforming and diversifying its renewable energy matrix through hydroelectric plants and transforming the socioeconomic reality of several regions, generating jobs, income, and local development through investments in wind energy. 

2. THE WARNING: THE CRISIS AND THE RISK OF CURTAILMENT (THE MACRO-CRISIS AND THE MICRO-CRISIS)

The Brazilian wind industry is a success story. Clean, competitive, nationalized, with over 35 GW installed and the second-largest source of electricity generation in Brazil, having already invested over US$42 billion, it is a global benchmark in renewable energy. 

However, this historic advancement is under significant threat. Since 2022, we have been experiencing a severe decline in new wind project contracts, worsening in 2023 and 2024. 

This decline is not a one-off. It reflects a macro-crisis that combines economic and structural factors: low economic growth, political instability, successive recessions, the prolonged effects of the pandemic, and a sharp rise in the Selic rate, which jumped from 10.5% to 15% from one year to the next, increasing the cost of capital and hindering investment. 

But there is a previously silent structural factor that now demands urgent attention: the uncoordinated expansion of distributed micro and mini-generation. Although it represents progress in democratising access to energy, its rise, based on poorly calibrated subsidies, without any corresponding contribution, and systemic management, has generated profound distortions in the Brazilian electricity sector. 

DG displaces consumers from the captive market, distorts cost allocation, compromises the predictability of distributors' revenues, and directly threatens the expansion of centralised renewable generation, especially wind power, but also centralised solar power. The result is clear: discouragement of investment, reversal of an industry that was 80% nationalised and had local jobs, mass layoffs on the factory floor, and the decommissioning of several production lines. We are facing a crisis that is not just cyclical. It is a systemic crisis. 

In addition, we face a micro-crisis within the renewable sector itself, further exacerbated by the MMGD: generation curtailments, or curtailments. This refers to the forced reduction or shutdown of electricity generation, even when the plant is technically capable of producing, for reasons beyond the control of the National System Operator. In Brazil, this occurs primarily due to excess generation relative to demand, transmission infrastructure limitations, and the need to maintain the stability of the National Interconnected System. However, these curtailments are worrying and cause severe impacts: 

• They jeopardise the economic and financial sustainability of companies, resulting in billion-dollar losses.
  
• Losses for wind farms of nearly R$6 billion, with 32 TWh curtailed (October 2021 to September 2025). It's like having the equivalent of almost a Belo Monte dam shut down for a year. They discourage the production chain and national industry;
• They drive away investors seeking security and stability, increasing the perceived risk of new projects;
• And more recently, they threaten the very operation of the Brazilian electrical system, with a real risk of blackouts, given the loss of control over the interconnected system.

Brazil has one of the most integrated and efficient electrical systems in the world. When viewed from the perspective of future economic models, it highlights us as a global benchmark in the energy transition. The SIN is a major achievement for the country, allowing us to take advantage of the highly renewable energy matrix, especially in times of climate variability or seasonality. But we cannot compromise this achievement without appropriate policy adjustments, energy planning, and improved regulation. 

Along these lines, this manifesto is an urgent call to action. It is essential to review the legal and regulatory framework for the country's energy industry to ensure balance among the various stakeholders, protect the system's predictability, and preserve the expansion of structuring renewable sources. Wind energy is strategic for Brazil, for decarbonization, energy security, and industrial development, in addition to being key to the global energy transition. We cannot allow a lack of institutional coordination to compromise decades of progress.

Despite the difficult times, the industry projects a strong recovery starting in 2027, driven by strategic demands that reinforce the role of our renewable energy matrix as a clean, competitive, and low-carbon source: 

• Data Centres and AI: The demand for high and continuous energy consumption for Artificial Intelligence is the main short-term focus, with contracts for considerable amounts of energy, some already underway. In just three years, data centers have consolidated themselves as new players, with R$7.7 billion in long-term contracts (between 2021 and 2024) and an average of 330 MW already contracted.
• Green Hydrogen (H₂V): The expansion of renewable hydrogen production will be a major growth driver, especially in the medium-term perspective. • Offshore Expansion: Offshore wind energy is the new frontier, with more than 100 projects in licensing and expected to operate after 2030, with the potential to generate hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions in investments.

Energy Storage Systems: Integrating battery storage systems with wind generation represents a milestone in the modernization of the SEB (Brazilian Electricity System). This association will enable curtailment mitigation; stabilization of the SIN (National Electricity System); decarbonisation; and tariff affordability. 

4. THE URGENCY OF THE PRESENT

To transform this vision into reality, urgent and coordinated actions are essential: 

• It is essential that federal, state, and municipal governments, Congress, and regulators work together to preserve achievements and expand the socioeconomic benefits of wind generation. 

• Delimiting Generator Risks: It is essential to clearly establish the boundaries of responsibilities and risks between the generator and the electrical system. Generation interruptions resulting from structural or operational limitations of the SIN (National Electricity System) must be duly compensated, ensuring legal certainty and economic predictability for wind investments.
• Resuming Planning: The success of wind energy in Brazil was built on planning, long-term vision, and institutional coordination.

• We need to restore this standard, with public policies that reflect the complexity of the energy matrix and the strategic value of the sector. 

• Infrastructure Investment: It is imperative to accelerate the expansion of transmission lines and the introduction of storage systems. Without this, the energy generated by our winds will continue to be cut and wasted. We need to ensure that the energy from our strong winds reaches those who truly need it.
• Demand-Based Development: Clean energy needs to be recognized and incorporated as a driver of development. It is urgent to promote policies that stimulate renewable consumption in industry, transportation, and the electrification of the economy, ensuring that demand keeps pace with supply and that Brazil advances as a hub for low-carbon products and services, while contributing to solving the climate crisis.

Brazil has the potential and the duty to lead the global energy transition. This manifesto is a call to collective responsibility. We call on all industry stakeholders, policymakers, investors, and civil society to join forces to ensure that planning and coordination are resumed and that the country's winds blow again to drive our development, our industry, and our energy future.